The most visible screen this week is the blue dollar: came to the $ 200. But in the meantime, there are other variables that are also deteriorating at the rate of uncertainty about the elections and the economic direction.
The risk country yesterday advanced 0.5% and closed 1741, a new record after the exchange from debt. The counted with free settlement (CCL), the one where the Central Bank does not intervene, touched a maximum of $ 215.35.
The proximity to elections it is not helping the financial variables. The uncertainty For what may happen on November 15, the day after the elections, it hits squarely on expectations and numbers. That is the main reason why the risk country it keeps going up even though there is no sign, good or bad.
The CCL “free”, the one where there is no or almost no official intervention, closed at $ 214.42 for the one carried out with the GD30 bond. The cash with settlement (CCL), which is a legal exchange rate to be able to withdraw dollars to an account abroad, arises from the buy and sell of a financial asset which is listed in Argentina and on international markets. It has as many quotes as assets are used, although there are some in particular (the AL30 bond) where the price is “dirty” due to the work that the Central does there.
Why the “Free” CCL Dollar Matters
The “free” CCL is one of the prices where there is no stocks or interventions and it reveals the real expectations of supply and demand. In other words, it is the sounding board of what happens in the economy, along with the “free” MEP and the blue.
“The CCL ‘free’ it rises due to a combination of factors ”, says Gabriel Caamaño of the Ledesma consulting firm. One is the issue, which generated liquidity, excess pesos seeking coverage in the dollar. “There are many pesos, de-anchoring expectations and segmentation within the exchange rates that make there are segments where you can seek coverage and others not, then the gap grows ”, says the economist.
In that sense, the difference between the “free” CCL and the wholesale dollar reached 114%. The percentage was not far from the gap between the official and the blue, which reached 99.2%. These levels are high and generate distortions on the real economy, such as the impulse for the consumption of durable goods with imported components (such as cars or computers), delay in exports and advance in imports.
Implicit behind these behaviors is the thought that the official dollar is “cheap” in relation to the parallel, and that at some point it will have to “get in range” and, therefore, go up.
Country risk continues to rise
The risk country it continued to rise during yesterday’s round, reaching 1,741 basis points, a new high since the debt swap. The dynamics worries the market because, after the arrangement with the bondholders, the indicator prepared by JP Morgan it should have come down.
In fact, since September 10, 2020, when the new papers began to trade, it has risen 658 basis points. Although it is not a historical record, the level continues to complicate Argentina to access financing international. Deep down, a country needs to be able to take debt to have another source to cover your expenses other than the collection o la issue.
This week, rumors about a potential order from International Monetary Fund In order not to face the payment of some US $ 1,874 million in December, they added more uncertainty, although the Government was in charge of confirming that it will advance with the disbursement and will use the Central Bank’s reserves.
Among the factors to explain this rise in country riskLeonardo Chialva, partner at Delphos Investment, points out the lack of agreement with the IMF and, therefore, the lack of a clear economic plan and the electoral uncertainty, added to measures that are not very pleasant for the investors, such as the price freeze.
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