The perfect storm is here to stay in the impact of our GDP And everything happens while countries like the United Kingdom revise their growth upwards. In Spain, with this downward look at the increase in GDP in the second quarter, once all items have been accounted for, we had to lower expectations for all of 2021, leaving behind Chinese growth levels to be satisfied with increases of around 5%. Elevated, yes, but clearly insufficient to recover part of that 10.8% lost along the way in 2020 on account of the pandemic crisis and that none of our community partners have experienced.
The IMF is the one who has opened the ban and it has made it clear that the PGE 2022 are made with growth forecasts of 6.5% this year and 7% next year, which have already become clearly obsolete. The International Monetary Fund projects a growth of the Spanish economy of 5.7% this year and 6.4% next. And go back where we used to, to 2.6% in 2023. In your case what you will think it’s a deferred growth since it has improved the estimates for 2022 in our Gross Domestic Product.
In that line, for example, it has also been pronounced AIReF. The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility that audit the accounts that the government puts on the table, has also lowered its expectations, when speaking in the Congress of the PGE 2022. For this year we will grow in Spain, says the organization, 5.5% and in the case of next year it also revises its estimate down to 6.3%.
The study services are also preparing to consider a GDP in 2021 downward for Spain. From CaixaBank Research they speak of a revision due to that lower growth in Q2. And although they do not subtract an iota of vigor to the growth of the last part of the year, the truth is that cut the increase in Gross Domestic Product to 5% this year and they revise upwards, in two tenths, the increase for 2022 to 6.2%. In this case due to a delay of what you consider an outcrop of dammed demand.
While since BBVA Research point down to growth in 2021 froml GDP of 5.2% and reduce to 5.5% the increase in Gross Domestic Product in our country in 2022. The reasons they point out, the disruptions in the production and supply chain, the increase in the price of energy and a third fundamental factor: the delay in the execution of European funds the Next Generation EU.
Finally, from Funcas, the Savings Banks Foundation, They also look at factors such as the upward cycle of energy costs and disruptions, the so-called bottlenecks in the supply chain, due to the increase in demand that is taking place in the recovery to justify the reduction of growth estimates . They leave the presumed GDP at the end of the year at 5.1% and in 2022, Nevertheless, they elevate it, as is the general trend, at 6% by two factors.
The first, the improvement in the supply chain, with less pressure from inflation that now reduces the purchasing power of households and companies. And the second because it will gain traction, they point out, the Recovery Plan, promoting investment in construction, and to a lesser extent, in capital goods.
Therefore, our GDP growth forecasts in 2021 range from 5% by CaixaBank Research to 5.7% as assessed by the IMF, while, in 2022, the band of increase of the Spanish Gross Domestic Product It ranges between 6.4% for the International Monetary Fund and 5.5% for BBVA Research.
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