The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly report for the 2021/2022 season this Tuesday, US soybean harvest forecast increased and that resulted in a sharp drop in the international price of the oilseed, the main export product of Argentina.
The figures had a direct impact on the Chicago Market, the global benchmark, where the price of soy fell more than 10 dollars for the November position and closed at $ 440 per ton, the lowest value since December last year (it is worth remembering that it climbed to more than $ 600 in May this year).
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA, for its acronym in English) surprised with the estimates of production and final stocks in that country, higher than those expected by market. While the harvest volume would go from 119 to 121 million tons, ending stocks would amount to 8.7 million tons.
“The increase in inventories takes us away from the danger zone of reaching the second lowest level in the history of the stock-consumption relationship. We are in a very negative scenario for the price of commodities ”, explained the grain analyst Pablo Adreani.
In that sense, as detailed by the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), soybean contracts ended the wheel in Chicago with falls of almost 2,5%.
“Like corn, the USDA increased its estimates of US production above market expectations, to 121.1 Mt, a historical record for the northern country. In addition, the increase in final stocks both in the United States and at a global level also provide fundamentals for the downward inertia ”, they highlighted from the entity.
Finally, in addition to these factors, the market took into account the advance of the harvest, which added additional seasonal pressure on prices.
The international price of cereals on the rise
For their part, the futures of corn they ended the day with falls due to an improvement in the estimates of US production by the USDA. The agency estimated a production of 381.5 million tons of cereal in the United States, a figure above that estimated by operators prior to the publication of the report.
In addition, according to the BCR specialists, given that cereal consumption would fall slightly, final stocks were projected at 38.1 million tons, that is, 2.3 million tons above the previous estimate.
Finally, the wheat closed with gains in Chicago after the USDA cut its estimates of global stocks at the end of the season: the agency reduced by 6 million tons its projections up to 277.2 million tons, a cut greater than that estimated by operators. Meanwhile, inventories are at a five-year low that boosts international prices.
Disclaimer: This article is generated from the feed and not edited by our team.